Bitcoin has risen 7% to 36% in the first week of January each year since 2018

As part of what economist and trader Alex Krüger refers to as the “first week of the year impact,” several crypto market analysts are predicting a positive first week on the crypto markets in January.

In a tweet on Dec. 29, Krüger noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has had positive returns in the first week of January for the previous four years, ranging from 7% to 36% between 2018 and 2021.

In the first week of January 2021, BTC increased from $28,653 to $41,441.

“tbf just 2020 and 2021 matter, separate markets,” Krüger said when questioned about prior years’ events. “Do with those two data points what you will.”

His positive view for early January stems from his assumption of robust “fund inflows,” which aligns with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal’s beliefs. Pal claimed in a YouTube interview on Dec. 27 that he felt the Bitcoin sell-offs were over and that the market will rebound in January as institutional money re-invested.

Even with less than 24 hours left in 2021, ExoAlpha CEO David Lifchitz says institutions are still selling to lock on tax losses. It’s probable that the phenomenon is linked to a January first-week comeback.

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Due to what he terms “panic sellers effectively giving away their cryptocurrency to affluent bidders,” deVere Group CEO Nigel Green believes that December has shaping up to be Bitcoin’s worst monthly showing since May of 2021.

He is, however, long-term positive on the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Green believes that Bitcoin can safeguard investors against global inflation and that “borderless, worldwide, decentralized currencies” are the way of the future.

However, not everyone is optimistic about cryptocurrency in 2022.

Carol Alexander, a finance professor at Sussex University, told CNBC that BTC might go as low as $10,000 by 2022. She is, however, a skeptic who feels that BTC has no intrinsic worth and that this cycle’s top has already been achieved.

Todd Lowenstein, Union Bank’s top equities strategist, has a more educated opinion. In 2022, he believes that “Goldilocks circumstances,” such as the COVID financial stimulus packages and low-interest rates, which benefitted high asset values, are coming to an end, which would have a huge negative impact on BTC and conventional markets.

“Goldilocks conditions are ending, and the liquidity flow is receding, causing overpriced asset classes and speculative parts of the market, including cryptocurrencies, to suffer disproportionately.”