Bitcoin to hit $250K in January 2022
According to well-known analyst Matthew Hyland, Bitcoin (BTC) will invalidate one of its most well-known price models this cycle, as $1 million becomes a focus for 2025.
Hyland, who has built a loyal following for his Bitcoin comments over the years, projected that only one of the two Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow models would survive until 2022 in a series of tweets on Nov. 9.
Bye bye, $288,000 stock-to-flow target?
With $100,000 still a hefty but feasible end-of-year price for 2021, all eyes are on what lies beyond.
New large-volume investors, according to Hyland, will be critical in determining how BTC price movement unfolds over the current halving cycle, which is expected to expire in 2024.
He believes that a massive public relations campaign by these big players will entice regular investors and that it will begin as soon as $100,000 is reached, supporting quantitative analyst PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.
“I believe the S2X model will be the spark for the late phases of the euphoric run,” he added, “because if PlanB is shown correctly regarding the S2F model ($100k), many people will believe the S2X model ($288K) will be proven true as well.”
Following that, the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which predicts an average price of $288,000 this cycle, will provide a ray of hope for holders, but BTC/USD will eventually fail to reach that level.
“I believe this will be all the news’ event,” he said, “but it will be forced on the public by the larger players to create enough liquidity for the large players to sell at the higher prices they want.”
“The target price will be $288K, but it will fall short at $250K.”
The effort will not end now that S2FX has been effectively “invalidated”; but, for 2025 — the year after the start of the second halving cycle, which is ostensibly due to see a new parabolic run — the $1-million-per-Bitcoin narrative will be replicated.
“The S2X ($288k) model will be invalidated, while the S2F ($100k) model, which projects Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2025, will remain intact,” Hyland wrote.
“This will be used by the major players in the next years!”
Hyland concluded by reiterating a price projection for January 2022, which at current levels appears impossible to comprehend: Bitcoin has surpassed the quarter-million-dollar mark.
Others, too, are already looking beyond the current cycle.
Bobby Lee, the former CEO of the BTCC exchange and now the developer of the Ballet Bitcoin wallet service, suggested that a $1 million Bitcoin price is all but certain by the 2030s.
“Bitcoin will go through three more block reward halvings in the next ten years, by the end of 2031.” This reduces the block reward to just 0.78 BTC for each block, resulting in a total daily fresh issuance of only 112.5 BTC. It’ll be really hard to come by. On November 10, he wrote, “Hold on and HODL!”
“By then, it’ll be million-dollar bitcoin!”